Kenya, Cameroon, and the Ilusion of Stability

For those of you who follow the news, Kenya exploded into violence in recent weeks after a disputed election. For those who would like some background, you can read a brief rundown on the country and it's history at wikipedia, a news round up at allAfrica.com, a timeline from Reuters, and a commentary by sociologist-historian Immanuel Wallerstein.

Today the news got even grimmer. The New York Times is reporting increasing signs that the violence in Kenya, which has left hundreds dead and tens of thousands displaced, was planned and premeditated by various political-ethnic factions.

A constant thread I have noticed in all the news coverage is surprise. No one saw it coming. Kenya was so "stable" they all say. The first paragraph in the Times article I linked to above says Kenya was "a country that was celebrated as one of Africa’s most stable."

Personally, I'm not that surprised. Violence like this doesn't come from nowhere. There are plenty of historical precedents in modern Africa. Côte d'Ivoire is probably the best example: for years it was touted as stable and prosperous - until it blew up in civil war a few years ago.

What's happening in Kenya is depressingly familiar in Africa: a toxic mix of poverty, corruption, undemocratic rule, and ethnic rivalry boiling over into violence.

I think it all goes back to the colonial era. Most countries in Africa never would have existed had they not been created by the European colonial empires. When the British, French, Germans, and Portuguese drew their borders, they were drawn for the convenience of the colonizers, not the inhabitants. As a result, diverse and often hostile ethnic and sectarian groups were lumped together under colonial rule, and then found themselves still lumped together in an uncomfortable marriage of inconvenience at independence.

Before independence, the colonial regimes often used a "divide and conquer" strategy of favoring one tribe over another in order to win their support and rule their otherwise unruly colonies. Lacking a strong national identity, this divisive kind of politics has continued and most Africans still identify more closely with their own ethnic group than with the artificial nations within whose borders they live. As a result, most politicians and generals tend to rule by leaning heavily on supporters of their own tribes, sects, or regions. These supporters are rewarded with a bigger share of economic opportunities and government spending than the others. Naturally, this leads to a lot of pent up grievances over time, especially in poor countries where the pie being divided up is pretty small to begin with.

The problem is compounded by the fact that Africa has suffered under a long line of one-party governments, military rule, and various other forms of personal or party dictatorship. Although Kenya has avoided military rule, it has been under one-party rule for its entire history, and its leaders in that party have continued the old game of favoring their own ethnic groups at the expense of others, stealing from the public treasury for their own personal enrichment, and stifling any effort to change the situation.

What foreign observers often call "stability" in countries like Kenya is really just a situation where the current ruling powers have managed to freeze the political situation in place so that no one can remove them. The problem with this is that the rulers of a one-party system have no incentive to actually address mounting economic or social problems or to try to defuse the ethnic tensions bubbling under the surface. These tensions are there even if they are hidden, and the longer they go unresolved the more the frustration of the people builds and builds until finally, some event triggers an explosion. I am friends with a married couple at my school who are originally from Kenya, and they have told me many stories about the mounting frustrations in Kenya at the absence of any real change.

I can't imagine what volunteers in Kenya are going through right now. Volunteers live and work in communities and form close relationships with their neighbors and coworkers. Now they are watching these same communities many of them have no doubt grown to love tear themselves apart. It must be heartbreaking. According to the Peace Corps, all volunteers in Kenya are safe and accounted for. Some are still at their posts working, while others have been temporarily consolidated at safe locations in hopes things calm down. (In case any PCVs in Kenya happen to read this, you are all in our thoughts here in Cameroon. Stay safe.)

The scary thing is, I think Cameroon is a lot like Kenya. An artificial nation made up of many different tribes that often have very little in common and ruled over by an insatiably corrupt one-party government. And foreigners like to praise the country for its "stability."

As an outsider, it's hard for me to tell where things are going, but I hear things.

I hear volunteers in the north of the country tell me their friends are saying if the next President of Cameroon is not a northerner they will go to war. I hear volunteers in the Anglophone provinces tell me friends openly wish they could form their own country. I hear Francophone Cameroonians saying that if the Anglopohones ever revolt they'll be crushed. I hear stories about how the Bamileké (one ethnic group in Cameroon) were chased out of my village by machete-wielding mobs in the 90s. I hear seething anger at wealthy politicians making fortunes by stealing from the people. I hear a good friend telling me "I have nightmares. We're going to be like Côte d'Ivoire or Rwanda."

Yet through it all, I constantly hear Cameroonians telling me "We're peaceful! we have no wars here! No wars!" but often with a hint of quiet desperation in their eyes - hoping that if they wish it and proclaim it loudly enough they can ward it off.

I hope I'm wrong. I hope Cameroon never knows the kind of violence that has torn apart Kenya or Rwanda or Côte d'Ivoire. But if it does I will not be surprised. It will be a hard day if it does come. I have lived with Cameroonians, worked with Cameroonians, taught Cameroonians, been friends with Cameroonians. They are not abstractions to me. They are not statistics on the news like they are to other Americans. They are friends and colleagues and the thought of them turning on each other is unbearable. If it happens, most Americans won't even notice. Those that do will say something banal like "isn't that terrible" and then forget about it.

For my part, I will weep for Cameroon and for my friends. Sometimes that's all you can do.